South Sudan's President Salva Kiir and Riek Machar shake hands after signing a historic reunification pact in Arusha, with Tanzania's President Jakaya Kikwete looking on. Photo: Courtesy
By Adonis Byemelwa
Political analysts on Azam Television's UTV yesterday, September, 29th 2024 called on the East African Community (EAC) to step up efforts to salvage South Sudan from its ongoing crisis. Among them, Denis Nkoba emphasized that Africans naturally harmonize, often trading across borders and intermarrying. However, he argued that regulatory challenges are fueling divisions in South Sudan, and urged the EAC, of which South Sudan is a member, to take decisive action to steer the country out of turmoil.
Meanwhile, the government of South Sudan has once again postponed its long-overdue general elections, pushing the date to December 2026. This marks the second postponement of elections since the country gained independence in 2011.
The transitional period, which began in February 2020, was set to culminate in the December 2024 elections, but now the government claims it needs more time to finalize essential processes like conducting a census, drafting a permanent constitution, and registering political parties.
South Sudan's Cabinet Affairs Minister, Martin Elia Lomuro, stated that recommendations from electoral and security bodies justified the two-year extension, highlighting the country's lack of preparedness. President Salva Kiir's office echoed these sentiments, stressing that rushing into elections without meeting international standards would be a costly mistake.
However, critics argue that the postponement only deepens the suffering of South Sudan’s citizens. Independent political analyst Andrea Mach Mabior warned that the delay could result in chaos if elections are held without proper preparations. “Going for elections that do not meet international standards will be a waste of money,” Mabior cautioned.
Kennesse Bwire, a Voice of America (VOA) reporter, pointed out that South Sudan’s citizens, suffering under extreme poverty, may have hoped for a leadership change, but the transitional government has failed to deliver meaningful improvements. The humanitarian situation is dire, with the UN estimating that 73% of the population—about 9 million people—are in urgent need of assistance.
The government’s appeals for international support to fund the elections have intensified. Lomuro revealed that South Sudan requires $40 million just to draft a new constitution and an additional $228.1 million to facilitate the electoral process. Of this, the government has only managed to allocate enough to cover 15% of the election-related costs. He appealed to the international community to bridge the financial gap, stressing that transparent financial reports would be made available to potential donors.
While the government insists it is committed to a democratic transition, many analysts and observers believe the continued postponement is a sign of deeper political and economic instability. With its oil exports crippled by the civil war in neighboring Sudan, South Sudan’s economic crisis has seen civil servants unpaid for nearly a year, adding to the frustrations of a population already mired in poverty.
As the clock ticks toward 2026, South Sudan teeters on the edge of uncertainty. The question looms large: can the nation's leadership finally stabilize the country and deliver the long-promised democratic transition, or will continued delays deepen the chaos and suffering? This latest postponement of the general elections pushed back to December 2026, has exacerbated tensions both domestically and internationally. It’s the second time elections have been delayed since South Sudan’s independence in 2011, a sobering reflection of the nation’s political inertia.
Despite being a member of the East African Community (EAC) since 2016, South Sudan has seen little tangible intervention from the regional body in resolving its internal crises. The EAC, which could be instrumental in mediating conflict and providing economic and political guidance, has largely been criticized for its passive approach.
Dr. Michael Ochieng, a Kenyan political analyst, pointed out that the EAC has "failed to assert itself in addressing South Sudan’s political and humanitarian crises." He noted that while the region benefits from open borders and shared trade, it’s the leadership that is failing the people. "The EAC has mechanisms for conflict resolution, yet it seems reluctant to enforce them. South Sudan's membership means nothing if its people are left to fend for themselves in such dire conditions," he added.
On the continental level, the African Union (AU) finds itself in a similarly precarious position. The AU's initial involvement in the 2018 peace agreement between President Salva Kiir and his former adversary-turned-deputy, Riek Machar, was a moment of hope. However, the benefits of this agreement have remained largely on paper. Adam Rassoul, a Sudanese political commentator, argued that the AU's approach to South Sudan has been more symbolic than substantive. "The AU celebrated the peace agreement as a diplomatic victory, but it failed to ensure the necessary follow-up," Rassoul observed. "Without firm, consistent pressure on Kiir’s government, the agreement became little more than a stalling tactic."
These shortcomings in regional and continental leadership are particularly troubling given the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in South Sudan. Nearly 9 million people—an astonishing 73% of the population—are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, according to United Nations estimates.
With an economy crippled by internal mismanagement and external disruptions, such as the civil war in neighboring Sudan, the country’s future appears increasingly bleak. Oil exports, South Sudan’s primary source of revenue, have been significantly affected by damaged infrastructure, compounding the government’s inability to pay civil servants for nearly a year.
International observers are beginning to lose patience. Dr. Joy Kwaje, a Ugandan political strategist, highlighted the growing frustration from foreign powers and financial institutions that have poured millions into South Sudan's development, only to see little progress.
"South Sudan has collected vast sums from the West, but the government’s failure to honor its commitments, especially concerning the election and constitution, raises serious concerns about its intentions," she noted. Kwaje also stressed that the continued postponements could provoke unrest, particularly if citizens lose faith in the possibility of democratic change.
As the country continues to stagger under the weight of political dysfunction, it is clear that the EAC and AU must take more proactive roles. Both institutions have the capability and the responsibility to hold the South Sudanese government accountable, but their reluctance to fully engage has left the country adrift. While the leadership in Juba cites logistical challenges and a lack of resources for delaying the elections, many believe that these are merely excuses to maintain the status quo.
The next two years will be pivotal for South Sudan, but they will also serve as a litmus test for the EAC and AU’s relevance as custodians of peace and progress in Africa. Should these institutions fail to act decisively, South Sudan’s fragile democracy could collapse, leaving the region in deeper turmoil. For now, the people of South Sudan wait with growing impatience, as promises of peace, stability, and democracy remain unfulfilled.