Unless swift and decisive action is taken to curb global warming, billions of children alive today will face unprecedented exposure to extreme climate events including heatwaves, droughts, floods, and wildfires—according to a new international study.
Led by Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) in collaboration with Environment and Climate Change Canada, KU Leuven, the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI), and ETH Zurich, the research offers a sobering glimpse into the future under current climate policies.
The study finds that if global temperatures rise by 3.5°C by the year 2100, 92% of children born in 2020 approximately 111 million will experience record-breaking heatwaves never before seen in human history. When including all children currently aged 5 to 18, the number of those at risk balloons to 1.5 billion.
“These numbers highlight the sheer scale of climate injustice,” said Professor Wim Thiery, senior author of the study and a climate scientist at VUB.
“In 2021, we showed that children, especially those in low-income countries, face disproportionate exposure to climate extremes. Now, we demonstrate how that exposure intensifies across their lifetimes.”
Researchers analyzed demographic data alongside global climate model projections to calculate the cumulative lifetime exposure to six major climate hazards: heatwaves, crop failures, river floods, droughts, wildfires, and tropical storms. Their assessment covered individuals born between 1960 and 2020.
Dr. Luke Grant, lead author of the study, warned that the findings underscore the urgent need to revise global climate strategies.
“Under current policies, we’re heading toward a 2.7°C increase in global temperatures this century—far above the 1.5°C target outlined in the Paris Agreement,” said Dr. Grant.
However, the researchers stressed that there's still a narrow window of opportunity.
“If we manage to limit global warming to 1.5°C, we could shield at least 49 million children from facing unprecedented climate risks,” he added.
Inger Ashing, CEO of Save the Children International, which released a companion report, emphasized that children are already experiencing the effects of the climate crisis.
“Across the world, children are forced to bear the brunt of a crisis they did not cause,” Ashing said. “Heatwaves that endanger their health and education; storms that destroy their homes and schools; droughts that leave them hungry. This study confirms that unless we act boldly, the situation will only worsen.”
She called for urgent and ambitious global action, stressing the need to prioritize children in climate responses.
“There is still time to act but we must do so immediately. We must put children at the center of global climate strategies.”
The study concludes that only deep and immediate cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, coupled with international cooperation to protect the most vulnerable, can safeguard future generations from increasingly severe climate extremes.